Translate

01. 12. 2016.

Da li je kraj zlatnog doba na dužničkom tržištu - Is it the end of the golden age of the debt market



                                              
Objavljeno : 01.12.2016.             

Na globalnom indeksu obveznica Blumberg Barklejz (Bloomberg Barclays) u novembru je zabeležen najveći pad od uspostavljanja 1990. godine, preneo je 1. decembra Blumberg, uz ocenu da kraj jakog tržišta obveznica više nije nezamisliv. Poseban podsticaj ovakvom trendu dale su najave Donalda Trampa da će kada preuzme funkciju predsednika SAD izdvojiti veliki iznos za infrastrukturu. Sosijete ženeral upozorava da će zaduživanje postati skuplje.

U tekstu za Si-En-En krajem novembra navodi se da je finansijska kuća Sosijete ženeral upozorila da je 10-godišnja "žurka" na dužničkom tržištu gotova, i da će troškovi pozajmljivanja brzo porasti, škodeći privredi i dovodeći do veoma snažnog povlačenja novca iz dugova.

"Pripremite se na ozbiljan mamurluk" (nakon žurke), navodi se u izveštaju Sosijete ženerala.

U novembru je indeks obveznica izgubio 1,7 hiljada milijardi dolara, dok je ukupna vrednost tržišta hartija od vrednosti povećana za 635 milijardi dolara. Ovakav trend prisutan je i u SAD i u Evropi, navodi Blumberg.

Ovakav trend postao je posebno osetan nakon pobede Donalda Trampa na predsedničkim izborima u SAD, pošto je tržište učitalo njegove najave velikih izdvajanja za infrastrukturu, a uticaj ima i dogovor Organizacije zemalja izvoznika nafte (OPEK) od 30. novembra da smanji proizvodnju, što nagoveštava mogućnost rasta inflacije.


Na tržištima se već računa na povećanu potrošnju nakon pobede Donalda Trampa na izborima u SAD zbog njegovih najava da će smanjiti poreze i da izdvojiti hiljadu milijardi dolara za infrastrukturu, a sve to je navelo investitore da napuštaju dug koji daje prinose bliske rekordnom minimumu.

Zato okončanje trodecenijskog jakog tržišta obveznica više ne deluje kao nemoguća misija, a u prilog tome ide i očekivanje da će američke Federalne rezerve početi da povećavaju kamatne stope, i da to čine više od jednom godišnje.

Postoje i naznake da bi svetske centralne banke mogle da smanje kupovinu državnih obveznica.

Tokom dve sedmice nakon Trampove pobede, investitori su povukli 10,7 milijardi dolara obveznica, što je najveći odliv od 2013. godine, a američki indeksi akcija su skočili na rekordne nivoe.

Neočekivano brzo učitane Trampove najave

Strateg Rabobank internešenal u Londonu Matju Kerns (Matthew Cairns) naveo je da je tržište veoma brzo učitalo očekivanja o povećanoj potrošnji koju najavluje Tramp.

"To je dovelo do osetnog pomeranja iz fiksnog prihoda u akcije", rekao je on, ali i upozorio da je to vanredno brza reakcija s obzirom na "očigledan nedostatak jasnih planova u pogledu politike" koju će slediti novi američki predsednik.

Prinos na 10-godišnje američke obveznice porastao je za 56 poena u novembru, što je najveći rast od 2009. godine, i iznosio je 2,41 odsto u jutarnjim satima u Njujorku, dok je vrednost nemačkih obveznica sa uporedivim rokom otplate dostigao dvomesemčni rekord od 0,32 odsto a rast je zabeležen i u Velikoj Britaniji.

Prosečan prinos na globalnom indeksu Blumberg barklejz porastao je na 1,61 odsto 23. novembra, nakon rekordno niskog nivoa od 1,07 odsto 5. jula. Na tržištu obveznica kada rastu cene, prinos se smanjuje, i obrnuto.

U tekstu Forbsa iz novembra takođe se ukazuje na ovakav trend i podseća se da su prinosi na obveznice u velikom delu razvijenog sveta skliznuli na negativnu teritoriju tokom leta, zbog slabih ekonomskih izgleda, dok se od jula beleži rast prinosa i pad cena obveznica. Od Trampove pobede ovaj trend se ubrzao, navodi se. 

U Forbsu se takođe kao razlozi navode inflacija, kamatne stope i Trampova politika.


Foto:


logo Association  

Posted: 01.12.2016.

On a global bond index Blumberg Barklejz (Bloomberg Barclays) in November saw the biggest decline since the establishment in 1990, passed on December 1 Bloomberg, adding that the end of a strong bond market is no longer unthinkable. A special incentive for this trend have given notice that Donald Trump will take over as president when the United States set aside a large amount of infrastructure. Societe Generale warned that borrowing will become more expensive.

The text of Si-En-En late November said that the financial house of Societe Generale warned that the 10-year-old "party" to the debt market is over, and that borrowing costs rise rapidly, economy and leading to a very strong withdrawals from debts.

"Prepare yourself for a serious hangover" (after party), the report said Societe eneral.

In November, the bond index lost 1.7 trillion dollars, while the total value of the securities market increased by 635 billion dollars. This trend is present in the US and Europe, according to Bloomberg.

This trend has become particularly noticeable after the victory of Donald Trump's presidential election in the United States, since the market is loaded a notice of his big spending on infrastructure, and the impact has negotiated the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from 30 November to reduce production, which suggests the possibility rising inflation.

In markets already account for increased spending after the victory of Donald Trump in the elections in the United States because of his announcement that he will cut taxes and to allocate one thousand billion dollars for infrastructure, all of which has led investors to abandon the debt which gives yields close to record low.

Therefore, completion of three decades of strong bond market no longer operates as a mission impossible, and this favor is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will begin to increase interest rates, and to do so more than once a year.

There are also indications that the world's central banks could reduce their purchases of government bonds.

During the two weeks after the Tramp wins, investors withdrew $ 10.7 billion of bonds, the biggest outflow since 2013, a US indexes soared to record levels.

Unexpectedly quickly loaded Tramp notice

Strategist at Rabobank in London internešenal Matju Kerns (Matthew Cairns) said that the market is quickly load your expectations of increased consumption by najavluje Tramp.

"This led to a perceptible shift from fixed income into stocks," he said, but warned that it is extraordinarily rapid reaction with regard to "the apparent lack of clear plans in terms of policy" that will follow the new American president.

The yield on 10-year US bonds rose to 56 points in November, the biggest increase since 2009, and amounted to 2.41 percent in the morning in New York, while the value of German bonds with comparable repayment period reached a record of dvomesemčni a 0.32 percent increase was recorded in the UK.

The average yield on the global index Blumberg barklejz rose to 1.61 percent on November 23, after a record low of 1.07 percent on July 5. On the bond market, when prices rise, the yield is reduced, and vice versa.
The text Forbes in November also points to this trend, and reminds that the yields on bonds in large parts of the developed world slid to negative territory during the year, due to weak economic outlook, while in July recorded a rise in yields and fall in bond prices. From Tramp wins this trend to accelerate, said.

In Forbes also cited as reasons for inflation, interest rates and the Tramp policy.

Photo:

Translation  by
Nebojša Vladisavljević


Nema komentara:

Objavi komentar