Objavljeno : 01.12.2016.
Na globalnom indeksu obveznica Blumberg Barklejz
(Bloomberg Barclays) u novembru je zabeležen najveći pad od uspostavljanja
1990. godine, preneo je 1. decembra Blumberg, uz ocenu da kraj jakog tržišta
obveznica više nije nezamisliv. Poseban podsticaj ovakvom trendu dale su najave
Donalda Trampa da će kada preuzme funkciju predsednika SAD izdvojiti veliki
iznos za infrastrukturu. Sosijete ženeral upozorava da će zaduživanje postati
skuplje.
U tekstu za Si-En-En krajem novembra navodi se da je
finansijska kuća Sosijete ženeral upozorila da je 10-godišnja "žurka"
na dužničkom tržištu gotova, i da će troškovi pozajmljivanja brzo porasti,
škodeći privredi i dovodeći do veoma snažnog povlačenja novca iz dugova.
"Pripremite se na ozbiljan mamurluk" (nakon
žurke), navodi se u izveštaju Sosijete ženerala.
U novembru je indeks obveznica izgubio 1,7 hiljada
milijardi dolara, dok je ukupna vrednost tržišta hartija od vrednosti povećana
za 635 milijardi dolara. Ovakav trend prisutan je i u SAD i u Evropi, navodi
Blumberg.
Ovakav trend postao je posebno osetan nakon pobede
Donalda Trampa na predsedničkim izborima u SAD, pošto je tržište učitalo
njegove najave velikih izdvajanja za infrastrukturu, a uticaj ima i dogovor
Organizacije zemalja izvoznika nafte (OPEK) od 30. novembra da smanji
proizvodnju, što nagoveštava mogućnost rasta inflacije.
Na tržištima se već računa na povećanu potrošnju nakon
pobede Donalda Trampa na izborima u SAD zbog njegovih najava da će smanjiti
poreze i da izdvojiti hiljadu milijardi dolara za infrastrukturu, a sve to je
navelo investitore da napuštaju dug koji daje prinose bliske rekordnom
minimumu.
Zato okončanje trodecenijskog jakog tržišta obveznica
više ne deluje kao nemoguća misija, a u prilog tome ide i očekivanje da će
američke Federalne rezerve početi da povećavaju kamatne stope, i da to čine
više od jednom godišnje.
Postoje i naznake da bi svetske centralne banke mogle da
smanje kupovinu državnih obveznica.
Tokom dve sedmice nakon Trampove pobede, investitori su
povukli 10,7 milijardi dolara obveznica, što je najveći odliv od 2013. godine,
a američki indeksi akcija su skočili na rekordne nivoe.
Neočekivano brzo
učitane Trampove najave
Strateg Rabobank internešenal u Londonu Matju Kerns
(Matthew Cairns) naveo je da je tržište veoma brzo učitalo očekivanja o
povećanoj potrošnji koju najavluje Tramp.
"To je dovelo do osetnog pomeranja iz fiksnog
prihoda u akcije", rekao je on, ali i upozorio da je to vanredno brza
reakcija s obzirom na "očigledan nedostatak jasnih planova u pogledu
politike" koju će slediti novi američki predsednik.
Prinos na 10-godišnje američke obveznice porastao je za
56 poena u novembru, što je najveći rast od 2009. godine, i iznosio je 2,41
odsto u jutarnjim satima u Njujorku, dok je vrednost nemačkih obveznica sa
uporedivim rokom otplate dostigao dvomesemčni rekord od 0,32 odsto a rast je
zabeležen i u Velikoj Britaniji.
Prosečan prinos na globalnom indeksu Blumberg barklejz
porastao je na 1,61 odsto 23. novembra, nakon rekordno niskog nivoa od 1,07
odsto 5. jula. Na tržištu obveznica kada rastu cene, prinos se smanjuje, i
obrnuto.
U tekstu Forbsa iz novembra takođe se ukazuje na ovakav
trend i podseća se da su prinosi na obveznice u velikom delu razvijenog sveta
skliznuli na negativnu teritoriju tokom leta, zbog slabih ekonomskih izgleda,
dok se od jula beleži rast prinosa i pad cena obveznica. Od Trampove pobede
ovaj trend se ubrzao, navodi se.
U Forbsu se takođe kao razlozi navode inflacija, kamatne
stope i Trampova politika.
Izvor: Bloomberg, Forbes, S.V.
Foto:
logo Association
Posted: 01.12.2016.
On a global bond index Blumberg Barklejz (Bloomberg
Barclays) in November saw the biggest decline since the establishment in 1990,
passed on December 1 Bloomberg, adding that the end of a strong bond market is
no longer unthinkable. A special incentive for this trend have given notice
that Donald Trump will take over as president when the United States set aside
a large amount of infrastructure. Societe Generale warned that borrowing will
become more expensive.
The text of Si-En-En late November said that the
financial house of Societe Generale warned that the 10-year-old
"party" to the debt market is over, and that borrowing costs rise
rapidly, economy and leading to a very strong withdrawals from debts.
"Prepare yourself for a serious hangover" (after
party), the report said Societe eneral.
In November, the bond index lost 1.7 trillion dollars,
while the total value of the securities market increased by 635 billion
dollars. This trend is present in the US and Europe, according to
Bloomberg.
This trend has become particularly noticeable after the
victory of Donald Trump's presidential election in the United States, since the
market is loaded a notice of his big spending on infrastructure, and the impact
has negotiated the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from 30
November to reduce production, which suggests the possibility rising inflation.
In markets already account for increased spending after
the victory of Donald Trump in the elections in the United States because of
his announcement that he will cut taxes and to allocate one thousand billion
dollars for infrastructure, all of which has led investors to abandon the debt
which gives yields close to record low.
Therefore, completion of three decades of strong bond
market no longer operates as a mission impossible, and this favor is the
expectation that the Federal Reserve will begin to increase interest rates, and
to do so more than once a year.
There are also indications that the world's central banks
could reduce their purchases of government bonds.
During the two weeks after the Tramp wins, investors
withdrew $ 10.7 billion of bonds, the biggest outflow since 2013, a US indexes
soared to record levels.
Unexpectedly
quickly loaded Tramp notice
Strategist at Rabobank in London internešenal Matju Kerns
(Matthew Cairns) said that the market is quickly load your expectations of
increased consumption by najavluje Tramp.
"This led to a perceptible shift from fixed income
into stocks," he said, but warned that it is extraordinarily rapid
reaction with regard to "the apparent lack of clear plans in terms of
policy" that will follow the new American president.
The yield on 10-year US bonds rose to 56 points in
November, the biggest increase since 2009, and amounted to 2.41 percent in the
morning in New York, while the value of German bonds with comparable repayment
period reached a record of dvomesemčni a 0.32 percent increase was recorded in
the UK.
The average yield on the global index Blumberg barklejz
rose to 1.61 percent on November 23, after a record low of 1.07 percent on July
5. On the bond market, when prices rise, the yield is reduced, and vice versa.
The text Forbes in November also points to this trend,
and reminds that the yields on bonds in large parts of the developed world slid
to negative territory during the year, due to weak economic outlook, while in
July recorded a rise in yields and fall in bond prices. From Tramp wins this
trend to accelerate, said.
In Forbes also cited as reasons for inflation, interest
rates and the Tramp policy.
Source: Bloomberg, Forbes, SV
Photo:
Translation by
Nebojša
Vladisavljević
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