Objavljeno : 06.12.2016.
Evropska centralna banka će 8. decembra, očekuju
ekonomisti, dati novi podsticaj evropskoj ekonomiji koja je i dalje podložna
krizi, ali i neizvesnostima nakon pobede milijardera Donalda Trampa na izborima
u SAD, odluke Velike Britanije da istupi iz EU i političkih rizika u Evropi.
Očekuje se nastavak otkupa dugova kroz koji se mesečno upumpa 80 milijardi evra
u ekonomiju.
Dnevni red sastanka ove monetarne institucije sa sedištem
u Frankfurtu na zapadu Nemačke je veoma "nabijen": guverneri ECB će
utvrditi nova ekonomska predviđanja, razmotriti mehanizme podrške privredi, a
većina ekonomista je ubeđena da će odlučiti da nastave sa masovnim otkupom
dužničkih hartija. Otkup dugova je vanredna mera koju je Evropska centralna
banka pokrenula da bi podstakla privredu i inflaciju.
Očekuje se da će kamatne stope, koje su već na
istorijskom minimumu, ostati nepromenjene.
"U situaciji povećanih političkih i ekonomskih
neizvesnosti, čini se da je predsednik (ECB) Mario Dragi spreman da najavi novo
produženje programa otkupe aktiva za šest meseci", izjavila je ekonomista
finansijske firme Kepital ekonomiks (Capital Economics) Dženifer Mikjoun
(Jennifer McKeown), a to je u sažetoj formi stav najvećeg broja stručnjaka.
Trenutni program otkupa dugova ističe u martu.
Protekli vikend obeležili su značajni politički događaji,
pre svega referendum o ustavnoj reformi u Italiji koji je doveo do ostavke šefa
italijanske vlade Matea Rencija (Matteo Renzi), što nagoveštava opasnost od
perioda nestabilnosti u toj zemlji.
Reakcija tržišta bila je mirna, što ne ide nužno u prilog
Mariju Dragiju. Negativnija reakcija bi mu pomogla da "opravda novo
produženje" programa otkupa dugova, ukazuje Karsten Bzreski (Carsten) iz
banke ING Diba.
Neki guverneri u savetu ECB priželjkuju da se osporavani
program otkupa duga što pre okonča, uz obrazloženje da je unekim zemljama doveo
do popuštanja u reformama i budžetskoj disciplini. Među njima je guverner
nemačke Bundesbanke Jens Vajdman (Weidmann).
Potreban odgovor
na populizam
Na sastanku će se, kako navodi Bzreski, sigurno govoriti
o političkoj neizvesnosti, budući da nema povećanja neizvesnosti na tržištu.
Budući da na tržištu postoji tendencija da se učitava
najgori senario "potrebno je da ECB
potvrdi svoju orijentaciju" (da pruža podršku), navodi ekonomista Benk ov
Amerika Meril Linč (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) Žil Moek (Gilles Moec).
Prvi čovek Evropske centralne banke u poslednje vreme
stalno upozorava na geopolitičke rizike. Tako je na jednom slušanju pred
Evropskim parlamentom krajem novembra rekao da nedavni događaji pokazuju da je
politika postala značajan izvor neizvesnosti u narednim mesecima, aludirajuči
na odluku velike britanije da istupi iz eu i iznenadne pobede Trampa, pobornika
protekcionizma.
Evropa se suočava sa narastajućim populizmom. Kandidat
ekstremne desnice jeste izgubio prošlog vikenda na predsedničkim izborima u
Austriji, ali su u najavi drugi izbori visokog rizika u tom pogledu, pre svega
u Francuskoj gde kandidatkinja ekstremno desničarskog Nacionalnog fronta Marina
Le Pen (Marine) ima dobre šanse da dođe do drugog kruga predsedničkih izbora
2017. godine.
Ekonomija zavisi
od podrške ECB
Evropska centralna banka već mesecima priprema tržište za
novo labavljenje monetarne politike, a Dragi je krajem novembra ponovio da je
ECB spremna da preduzme korake ukoliko to bude neophodno kako bi dala podsticaj
privredi i inflaciji.
Ekonomska situacija se doduše malo poboljšava, pa je
nezaposlenost u oktobru prvi put za pet godina pala ispod simboličnog praga od
10%, a ubrzanje sektora proizvodnje u novembru ukazuje da se potvrđuje obnova
industrijske aktivnosti.
Inflacija je međutim sa 0,6% u novembru i dalje daleko od
od ciljane stope koja je nešto niža od 2%, a i u trećem tromesečju je ekonomija bila blizu stagnacije
sa porastom od 0,3%.
Mario Dragi je sredinom novembra rekao da pokretanje
privrede zavisi od podrške ECB.
Ekonomisti konkretno očekuju da se otkup javnog i
privatnog duga nastavi do septembra 2017. godine. Evropska centralna banka kroz
ovaj program svakog meseca ubacuje 80 milijardi evra u privredu.
ECB bi mogla i da ublaži ograničenja za kupovinu ovih
hartija kako se ne bi dogodilo da na tržištu nema hartija koje bi mogla da
kupi.
Izvor: AFP
Foto: Beta-AP
logo Association
Posted: 06.12.2016.
The European Central Bank will be 8 in December,
economists expected, to give new impetus to the European economy, which is
still vulnerable to the crisis, but also uncertainties after the victory of
billionaire Donald Trump in the elections in the United States, the United
Kingdom decision to withdraw from the EU and political risk in Europe. Is
expected to continue through the purchase of debts that are monthly pumped 80
billion euros into the economy.
The agenda of the meeting of the monetary institution
headquartered in Frankfurt in the west of Germany is a very "charged":
ECB governors will establish a new economic forecasts to consider mechanisms to
support the economy, and most economists are convinced that they will decide to
continue with the mass purchase of debt securities. Purchase of debts was an
extraordinary measure by the European Central Bank launched to boost the
economy and inflation.
It is expected that interest rates, which are already at
a historic low, remain unchanged.
"In a situation of increased political and economic
uncertainty, it seems that President (ECB) Mario Draghi is ready to announce a
new extension of the program to purchase the assets of six months," said
economist financial firms Kepital EKONOMIKS (Capital Economics) Mikjoun
Jennifer (Jennifer McKeown) and it is in summary form of betting the maximum
number of experts. Current debt purchase program expires in March.
Last weekend was marked by significant political events,
primarily referendum on constitutional reform in Italy that led to the
resignation of head of the Italian government Matea Renzi (Matteo Renzi), which
implies the risk of a period of instability in the country.
The reaction of the market was quiet, which is not
necessarily going in favor of Mary dear. More negative reactions to help him
"justify the new extension" of the program redemption of debts,
suggests Karsten Bzreski (Carsten) from the bank ING Diba.
Some governors in the ECB Council aspire to disputed
repurchase program of debt as soon as possible to end, on the grounds that some
stretches countries led to the failure of the reforms and budget discipline.
Among them is the Governor of the German Bundesbank Jens Weidmann (Weidmann).
The required
response to populism
The meeting will, as stated Bzreski certainly talk about
political uncertainty, since there is no increase in uncertainty in the market.
Since the market tends to be loaded worst senario
"is necessary for the ECB to confirm their commitment" (to support),
says economist Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Bank of America Merrill Lynch)
Moeke Gilles (Gilles Moecel).
The first man of the European Central Bank in recent
years constantly warns of geopolitical risks. Thus, for a hearing before the
European Parliament in late November said that recent events show that the
policy has become a significant source of uncertainty in the coming months,
referring to the decision of Great Britain to withdraw from the European Union
and the sudden victory Trump, supporters of protectionism.
Europe faces a growing populism. The candidate of the
extreme right lost the last weekend's presidential election in Austria, but the
other choices in the announcement of very high concern in this regard,
especially in France where the candidate extreme right National Front Marina Le
Pen (Marine) has a good chance to reach the second round of presidential
elections in 2017.
Economy depends on
the support of the ECB
European Central Bank for months preparing the market for
a new loosening of monetary policy, but at the end of November Dear reiterated
that the ECB is ready to take action if necessary to give impetus to the
economy and inflation.
The economic situation has indeed improved a little, but
the unemployment rate in October for the first time in five years fell below
the symbolic threshold of 10%, and the acceleration of the manufacturing sector
in November indicates that confirms the renewal of industrial activity.
Inflation, however, from 0.6% in November and still far
away from the target rate that is slightly lower than 2%, and in the third
quarter, the economy was close to stagnation with growth of 0.3%.
Mario Draghi said that in mid-November launch of the
economy depends on the support of the ECB.
Economists expect the concrete to purchase public and
private debt continue until September 2017. The European Central Bank through
this program every month put 80 billion euros into the economy.
ECB might even ease restrictions on the purchase of these
securities as would have happened if the market does not have securities that
could be bought.
Source: AFP
Photo: Beta-AP
translated by
Nebojša Vladisavljević
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