Renci podnosi ostavku, Italija ulazi u period neizvesnosti - Renzi resigns, Italy has entered a period of uncertainty

                                                          

Objavljeno : 05.12.2016.             

Italija posle najavljene ostavke premijera Matea Rencija ulazi u period političke neizvesnosti, a pred italijanskim predsednikom Serđom Matarelom koji će odlučivati o daljim korcima, nekoliko je mogućnosti. Kao verovatan ishod pominje se formiranje nove vlade koja bi bila zadužena za donošenje budžeta za narednu godinu i izmenu izbornog zakona pre eventualnog raspisivanja vanrednih izbora. Renci je na mestu premijera proveo oko 1.000 dana prešavši put od mladog popularnog lidera naklonjenog reformama do razočaranog lidera koga kolege političari osporavaju a većina građana odbacuje.

Renci je najavio 5. decembra da će tokom dana predati predsedniku Serđu Matareli podneti ostavku posle poraza na referendumu na kome se 59,11% Italijana izjasnilo protiv izmena Ustava.

On nije uspeo da ubaci svoje sugrađane u reformu koja je trebalo da pojednostavi italijanski politički sistem. Predložena reforma predviđala je drastično smanjenje ovlašćenja Senatu, gornjem domu parlamenta, kao i regionalnih i pokrajinskih vlasti.

Renci je sa 39 godina stupio na dužnost 2014. kao najmlađi premijer u istoriji Italije. On je tada obećao da će iz korena reformisati zemlju i da će Italija izbiti u prvi plan u Evropi, ali i pored velike energije nikada nije zaista uspeo da mobiliše svoje sugrađane.

Optuživan često da vlada sam bez smisla za kompromis Renci je izazvao i duboke podele u svojoj Demokratskoj partiji koja je podelila na većinu i "odmetnute" članove naklonjenje levici, a sada ostaje da se vidi i da li će ostati i na čelu stranke.

Od izbora verovatnije formiranje nove vlade

Matarela bi mogao da odmah pošto Renci podnese ostavku 5. decembra popodne na sednici vlade, zatraži od odlazećeg premijera da formira novu vladu. Renci bi teoretski mogao da dobije poverenje parlamenta, bilo postojeće većine ili nove većine koja bi uključila stranku Forca Italija bivšeg premijera Silvija Berluskonija koji je to pominjao kao mogućnost.

Međutim, čini se da je Renci u obraćanju posle referenduma odbacio tu mogućnost rekavši da se "njegovo iskustvo kao šefa vlade ovde završava". Mogućnost da Renci ponovo formira vladu umanjuje i činjenica da se veliki broj građana, gotovo 60%, izjasnio protiv ustavne reforme koju je odlazeći premijer predlagao.

Matarela bi, što je verovatnije, mogao da imenuje novog mandatara koji prethodno obezbedi podršku sadašnje većine ili proširene većine a više imena se pominje u tom kontekstu, poput ministra finansija Pjera Karla Padoana i predsednika Senata Pjetra Grasa.

Imenovanje Padoana bi umirilo tržišta koja strahuju zbog mogućnosti da Italija, kao treća ekonomija zone evra, uđe u nov period političke nestabilnosti. Na Milanskoj berzi cene akcija su posle referenduma pale za 1,29%, dok su akcije većine banaka bile u padu. Kamata na 10-ogodišnje državne obvzenice je porasla, dok je evrp pao na 1,0571 dolara.

Nova vlada bi bila zadužena za donošenje budžeta za narednu godinu, kao i izmenu izbornog zakona pre eventualnog raspisivanja vanrednih izbora.

Nova vlada bi mogla da odluči da nastavi mandat sve do isteka sadašnjeg saziva parlamenta 2018. što bi razočaralo stranke poput populističkog Pokreta pet zvezda koji je kao i Severna liga zatražio posle referenduma da se izbori raspišu što pre.

"Italijani treba da budu pozvani na izbore što pre", rekao je lider Pokreta pet zvezda Bepe Grilo. "Najbrži, realan i konkretan način da se odmah ide na glasanje jeste sa postojećim izbornim zakonom", rekao je on.

Pokretu pet zvezda sadašnji izborni zakon ide na ruku, s obzirom da je, prema istraživanjima javnog mnjenja, objavljenim pre referenduma, drugi po snazi politički pokret iz Rencijeve demokratske partije (PD).

Taj zakon, usvojen u maju 2015. predviđa većinu u donjem domu za strnaku koja osvoji više od 40% glasova u prvom krugu izbora ili za stranku koja u eventualnom drugom krugu osvoji više glasova.

Reforma izbornog zakona iz 2015. godine predviđa da stranka koja je osvojila više od 40% glasova ili u drugom krugu bude prva od dve partije dobije dodatni broj poslaničkih mesta i tako učvrsti većinu u donjem domu. Prema istraživanjima javnog mnjenja Pokret pet zvezda pobedio bi na izborima tog tipa.

Druge stranke su protiv izlaska na izbore i smatraju da pre izbora treba izmeniti izborni zakon u delu koji se odnosi na donji dom parlamenta kako bi bio uređen na proporcionalniji način.

Na Matareli će biti odluka za koji će se scenario opredeliti, a moraće da osigura da tehnička vlada ima većinu ako želi da izbegne održavanje vanrednih izbora sledeće godine.

Izvor: AFP

Foto: Beta/AP

                                               logo Association

Posted: 12.05.2016.

Italy after the announced resignation of Prime Minister Mateo Renzi entering a period of political uncertainty, and before Italian President Sergio Matarelom who will decide on further Korce, there are several options. As the likely outcome is referred to the formation of a new government that would be responsible for passing the budget for the next year and change the electoral law before the possibility of calling an early election. Renzi's prime minister spent about 1,000 days crossing the road from the popular young leaders and supporting reforms to disillusioned leaders who challenged fellow politicians a majority of citizens reject.

Renzi announced on December 5 that they were going to hand over to the President Sergio Mattarella resign after the defeat in the referendum in which 59.11% of Italians voted against the amendment of the Constitution.

He was unable to put their fellow citizens in the reform, which was supposed to simplify the Italian political system. The proposed reform is predicted to drastically reduce the powers to the Senate, the upper house of parliament, as well as regional and provincial authorities.

Renci the age of 39 came to office in 2014 as the youngest prime minister in the history of Italy. He then promised to reform the root of the country and that Italy will come to the fore in Europe, but despite high energy was never really able to mobilize their fellow citizens.

Often accused that the government alone without a sense of compromise and Renci caused deep divisions within his Democratic Party which has granted the majority of the "renegade" members naklonjenje left, and now it remains to be seen whether it will remain at the helm of the party.

Since the election likely to form new government

Mataram could soon as Renci resign on December 5 in the afternoon at a government session, ask the outgoing Prime Minister to form a new government. Renzi could theoretically win the confidence of Parliament, whether existing or new majority that would include most of the Forza Italia party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who is mentioned as a possibility.

However, it seems that the Renzi in a speech after the referendum rejected that possibility, saying that "his experience as head of government ends here." The ability to re-form the government Renzi is reduced by the fact that a large number of citizens, almost 60% spoke out against constitutional reforms by the outgoing Prime Minister suggested.

Mattarella would, more likely, could not appoint a new mandate to provide support above current majority or a majority of the enlarged multiple names mentioned in this context, such as Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, and Senate President Pietro Grasso.

Appointment Padoan would calmed markets, which fear the possibility that Italy, as the third euro zone economy, and entered into a new period of political instability. On the Milan stock exchange price of the shares after the referendum fell by 1.29%, while shares of most banks were in decline. The interest rate on 10-year government obvzenice has increased, while the ESRP fell to 1.0571 dollars.

The new government would be responsible for adopting the budget for next year, as well as the amendment of the electoral law before the possibility of calling an early election.

The new government could decide to continue the mandate until the expiry of the current Parliament in 2018 which would disappoint populist parties like the Movement five star which like Northern League requested after the referendum to call for elections as soon as possible.

"Italians are to be called to the polls as soon as possible," said the leader of the Movement five star Beppe Grillo. "The fastest, realistic and concrete way to immediately go to the polls did with the existing election law," he said.

Five Star Movement the current election law favors, given that, according to opinion polls published before the referendum, the second force political movement of Renzi Democratic Party (PD). The law, adopted in May 2015 provides for a majority in the lower house of strnaku that wins more than 40% of the votes in the first round or the party that in an eventual second round win more votes.

The reform of the electoral law of 2015 stipulates that the party that won more than 40% of the votes, the second round is the first of the two parties gain additional number of seats, and thus strengthen the majority in the lower house. According to opinion polls Movement to five star won in the elections of this type.

Other parties are against participating in elections and believe that before the elections the election law should be changed in the part referring to the lower house of Parliament in order to be arranged in a manner proportionate.

On Matara will be a decision for the scenario to be defined, will have to ensure that the technical government has a majority, if it wants to avoid early elections next year.

Source: AFP

Photo: Beta / AP

translated by

Nebojša Vladisavljević

romi.novinari@yahoo.com