Svetska banka: ne prekidati reforme - World Bank: Do not interrupt reform

                                  

Objavljeno : 22.11.2016.             

Privredni rast u Srbiji u 2017. godini će se ubrzati na 3,5% sa ovogodišnjih 2,5%, pre svega zahvaljujući investicijama, dok će domaća potrošnja imati veći uticaj tek u narednim godinama, saopštila je 22. novembra Svetska banka. Srbiji se savetuje da ne prekida reforme, ali i da vodi računa o zaštiti siromašnih. Radna mesta se otvaraju uglavnom "na crno". Region Evrope i centralne Azije, gledano u celosti, beleži slab rast i potrebne su odlučne mere da bi se situacija popravila, pri čemu treba izbeći pribegavanje rešenjima koja su rezultate davala u prošlosti, ali više nisu prilagođena okolnostima.

U ažuriranoj ekonomskoj prognozi za Evropu i centralnu Aziju, koja je 22. novembra predstavljena u Bukureštu, navodi se da je u Srbiji nastavljen napredak u fiskalnom prilagođavanju, ali da se primena strukturnih reformi usporila, i da je potrebno nastaviti reforme bez zastoja.

Strukturne reforme su korisne za budući rast prihoda u društvu u celini, ali uticaj sveobuhvatnih strukturnih reformi kratkoročno gledano može da predstavlja izazov za smanjenje siromaštva, zbog čega su potrebne mere za ublažavanje takvog efekta. Izveštaj "Presek ekonomskog stanja u Evropi i centralnoj Aziji" predstavljen je u Bukureštu.

"Socijalna zaštita i prilike za posao kako bi se ublažio negativni uticaj moraju da ostanu značajni deo političke agende", navodi se u prognozi, u kojoj je procenjeno da će siromaštvo, mereno iznosom od pet dolara dnevno prema paritetu kupovne moći, opadati polako, sa 13,9% u 2016. i 13,5% u 2017. na 12,8% u 2018.

Navodi se da postoji rizik da mogući dalji porast cena struje i drugih izvora energije stvori dodatan pritisak posebno na siromašna domaćinstva, uprkos proširenju povlastica za energetski ugroženog kupca.

Cilj fiskalne konsolidacije je da se srednjeročno gledano bužetski deficit snizi na nivo ispod 2% BDP, što je po prognozi Svetske banke planirano u 2018. sa deficitom od 1,7%, a državni dug bi te godine trebalo da opadne na 72,7% sa ovogodišnjih 76,8%.

Poslovi uglavnom "na crno"

Inflacija je i dalje ispod planiranog nivoa sa stopom od 1,7%, a s obzirom da se domaća potrošnja postepeno oporavlja i da su cene uvoza niske, u željeni opseg će se vratiti tek početkom 2017. i te godine će, kako se procenjuje, iznositi 3,1%, a u 2018. godini 3,5%.

Direktne strane investicije su se tokom letnjih meseci oporavile i dostigle nivo viši od ovogodišnjeg deficita tekućeg plaćanja, koji je za 2016. prognoziran na 4,2% bruto domaćeg proizvoda.

Dinar je tokom godine oslabio za 1,3% prema evru uprkos osetnim i čestim intervencijama Narodne banke Srbije, a devizne rezerve su se ove godine smanjile za 800 miliona evra.

Navodi se da je bankarski sektor i dalje stabilan i da su se ove godine do jula pozajmice privatnom sektoru povećale za 5,6%  u odnosu na isti period prošle godine, a pozajmice domaćinstvima za 8,3%.

Nezaposlenost je opala sa 17,7% u 2015. na 15,2% u drugom kvartalu 2016, pri čemu su povećane i stopa zaposlenosti na 45,9% i stopa aktivnosti na 54,1% i one se polako vraćaju na nivo pre krize, navodi Svetska banka. Ipak, u izveštaju se navodi da se dve trećine novootvorenih radnih mesta stvori u sivom sektoru.

Skroman privredni rast u regionu

U Evropi i centralnoj Aziji u celini ove godine se očekuje skroman privredni rast od 1,6% i vlade bi trebalo da preduzimaju mere za pospešivanje ekonomije, stav je Svetske banke. Niska cena nafte i drugih berzanskih roba u istočnom delu regiona, pad investicija u Evropskoj uniji, kao i tekući strukturni izazovi u svim zemljama, sprečavaju rast u regionu i doprinose porastu populizma i polarizacije, navodi seu.

U ažuriranoj proceni rasta navodi se da se sličan trend skromnog rasta očekuje i u naredne dve godine, sa rastom od 1,5 odsto u 2017. i 1,8 odsto 2018. godine. Najjači rast je na Zapadnom Balkanu - 2,7% u 2016, 3,2% u 2017. i 3,5% u 2018. godini, dok će u istočnoj Evropi i centralnoj Aziji rast biti 0,7% u 2016, 2,3% u 2017. i 2,6% u 2018, a u Evropskoj uniji se očekuje mali pad BDP-a.

Potpredsednik Svetske banke za region Evrope i centralne Azije (ECA) Siril Miler izjavio je da je skroman rast koji se beleži "korak u dobrom pravcu", ali da nije dovoljan da odagna zabrinutost ljudi u regionu zbog ekonomske perspektive.

"Vlade mogu odmah da deluju kako bi pomogle. Na primer, mogu da promovišu više celoživotnog učenja kako bi pomogli ljudima da nađu i zadrže posao. Takođe mogu da obezbede brigu o deci i starijima kako bi olakšali veću fleksibilnost u izboru zaposlenja. Ove akcije mogu da osiguraju jednake šanse i da podstaknu ukupan rast", naveo je on.

Kao druge mogućnosti predložio je podršku preduzećima u iskorišćavanju novih izvoznih šansi, smanjenje troškova i vremena za pokretanje novog biznisa i ulazak na nova tržišta i smanjenje ograničenja na pomeranje zaposlenih na nove aktivnosti.

U izveštaju se ukazuje da su potrebna bolja istraživanja i podaci o neravnopravnosti, uključujući i pokazatelje percepcije ljudi o promenama po pitanju neravnopravnosti.

Ekonomska neizvesnost - izvor političke polarizacije

Glavni ekonomista Svetske banke za region ECA Hans Timer rekao je da odluka Britanaca o istupanju iz EU i izbeglička kriza stavljaju na probu saradnju u Evropi, i da se istočna polovina regiona još uvek bori da se prilagodi niskim cenama nafte.

"Neuspeh u celom regionu da se pokrenu novi izvori rasta doprinosi porastu populizma i polarizacije, te nepoverenju u institucije", naveo je on.

Istraživanja koja su uključena u izveštaj pokazuju da zabrinutost zbog promena u ekonomskom okruženju, a posebno neizvesnost zaposlenja, doprinose porastu političke polarizacije u zemljama regiona ECA.

U saopštenju Svetske banke navodi se da rapidno povećanje privremenih i povremenih poslova, i promene u potražnji za stručnim profilima, podstaknute novim digitalnim tehnologijama, doprinose povećanoj zabrinutosti među ljudima u regionu i "određenom pomeranju podrške dalje od sredine političkog spektra".

Navodi se da je potreban snažan odgovor kroz odgovarajuće politike koje odgovaraju novoj ekonomskoj eri, a ne treba pribegavati rešenjima koja su davala rezultate u prošlosti pod značajno drugačijim okolnostima.

U odsustvu snažnog odgovora kroz odgovarajuće politike, tekući strukturni izazovi koji usporavaju privredu u regionu prete da oslabe rast i smanjenje siromaštva na dugi rok, navodi se u saopštenju Svetske banke.

Napisala: S.V.

Foto: Beta

logo Association 

Posted: 11.22.2016.

Economic growth in Serbia in 2017 will accelerate to 3.5% this year to 2.5%, primarily due to investments, while domestic consumption will have a greater impact only in the coming years, according to the World Bank on 22 November. Serbia is strongly advised that you do not break the reform, but also to take care to protect the poor. Jobs open mostly "black." Europe and Central Asia, viewed as a whole, recorded weak growth and requires decisive action to improve the situation, but it should avoid resorting to solutions that are the results given in the past but are no longer adapted to the circumstances.

In updated economic forecast for Europe and Central Asia, which was presented on 22 November in Bucharest, said that Serbia continued progress in fiscal adjustment, but that the implementation of structural reforms has slowed down and the need to continue the reforms without delay.

Structural reforms are beneficial for the future growth of income in society as a whole, but the impact of comprehensive structural reforms in the short term can be a challenge for poverty reduction, which are the necessary measures to mitigate such effects. The report "The intersection of the economic situation in Europe and Central Asia" was presented in Bucharest.

"Social protection and job opportunities in order to mitigate the negative impact must remain a significant part of the political agenda", according to the forecast, in which it is estimated that poverty, measured by the amount of five dollars a day in purchasing power parity, to decline slowly, with 13.9% in 2016 and 13.5% in 2017 to 12.8% in 2018.

 It is alleged that there is a risk that a possible further rise in the price of electricity and other energy sources create additional pressure on poor households in particular, despite the extension of privileges energy vulnerable customer.

Fiscal consolidation is that the medium term BUZETSKA deficit reduced to levels below 2% of GDP, as forecast by the World Bank in 2018 with a planned deficit of 1.7%, a national debt that year would need to fall to 72.7% from this year's 76.8%.

Jobs are "black"

Inflation remains below target levels with a rate of 1.7%, and given that domestic consumption is gradually recovering, and that the low prices of the imports, into the desired range will not be back until the beginning of 2017 and this year will, according to estimates, will amount 3.1% and in 2018 3.5%.

Foreign direct investment were recovered during the summer months and reached a level higher than this year's current account deficit, which for 2016 is forecast at 4.2% of gross domestic product.

Dinar during the year fell by 1.3% against the euro despite the sensory and frequent interventions of the National Bank of Serbia, and foreign exchange reserves this year decreased by 800 million euros.

It is alleged that the banking sector remains stable and that these loans until July the private sector increased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year, while loans to households by 8.3%.

Unemployment has dropped from 17.7% in 2015 to 15.2% in the second quarter of 2016, whereby the employment rate increased to 45.9% and the activity rate at 54.1% and they are slowly returning to pre-crisis levels , according to the World Bank. However, the report states that two-thirds of new jobs created in the gray sector.

Modest economic growth in the region

In Europe and Central Asia as a whole this year is expected modest economic growth of 1.6% and the government should take measures to encourage the economy, the attitude of the World Bank. The low price of oil and other commodities stock exchange in the eastern part of the region, the decline in investments in the EU, as well as the current structural challenges in all countries, preventing growth in the region and contribute to the rise of populism and polarization states still.

In the updated estimate of growth in states that are similar to the trend of modest growth expected in the next two years, with growth of 1.5 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018. The strongest growth was in the Western Balkans - 2.7% in 2016, 3.2% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, while in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, growth will be 0.7% in 2016, 2, 3% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, while the European Union is expected a small decline in GDP.

World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Cyril Muller said that the modest growth which recorded a "step in the right direction," but that is not sufficient to allay the concerns of people in the region because of the economic perspective.

"Governments can act immediately to help. For example, can promote more lifelong learning in order to help people find and keep a job. They can also provide care for children and the elderly in order to facilitate greater flexibility in the choice of employment. These actions can to ensure equal opportunities and to promote the overall growth, "he said.

As other options proposed support to enterprises in exploiting new export opportunities, reduce costs and time to start a new business and enter new markets and reducing restrictions on the movement of employees to new activities.

The report noted that the need for better research and data on inequality, including indicators of people's perceptions of changes in terms of inequality.

Economic uncertainty - a source of political polarization

Chief economist of the World Bank's ECA region for Hans Timer said that the decision of the British withdrawal from the EU and the refugee crisis are challenging Cooperation in Europe, and the eastern half of the region are still struggling to adapt to the low oil prices.

"Failure in the region to launch the new sources of growth contributing to the rise of populism and of polarization and mistrust in the institutions," he said.

The studies that were included in the report shows that concerns about changes in the economic environment, especially the uncertainty of employment, contributing to the rise of political polarization in ECA countries.

In a statement the World Bank states that the rapid increase in temporary and part-time jobs, and changes in the demand for professional profiles, driven by new digital technologies, contributing to increased concern among people in the region and "a certain shift of support away from the middle of the political spectrum."

 It is alleged that a strong response through appropriate policies that correspond to the new economic era, and we should not resort to solutions that have been successful in the past under significantly different circumstances.

 In the absence of a strong response through appropriate policies, the current structural challenges that are slowing down the economy in the region threatens to undermine growth and poverty reduction over the long term, said in a statement the World Bank.

She wrote: SV

Photo: Beta

Translated by

Nebojša Vladisavljević

 romi.novinari@yahoo.com